Despite Reductions by Industrialized Countries, Global CO2 Emissions Increase Steeply
Global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) increased by 45 percent between 1990 and 2010, and reached an all-time high of 33 billion tons in 2010. Increased energy-efficiency, nuclear energy and the growing contributions of renewable energy are not compensating for the globally increasing demand for power and transport, which is strongest in developing countries.
This increase took place despite emission reductions in industrialized countries during the same period. Even though different countries show widely variable emission trends, industrialized countries are likely to meet the collective Kyoto target of a 5.2 percent reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2012 as a group, partly thanks to large emission reductions from economies in transition in the early nineties and more recent reductions due to the 2008-2009 recession. These figures were published in the report "Long-term trend in global CO2 emissions," prepared by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
The report, which is based on recent results from the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) and latest statistics for energy use and other activities, shows large national differences between industrialized countries. Over 1990-2010, in the EU-27 and Russia, CO2 emissions decreased by 7 percent and 28 percent respectively, while the USA's emissions increased by 5 percent and the Japanese emissions remained more or less constant. The industrialized countries that have ratified the Kyoto Protocol (so-called ratifying Annex 1 countries) and the United States, in 1990 caused about two-thirds of global CO2 emissions. Their share of global emissions has now fallen to less than half the global total.
Continued growth in the developing countries and emerging economies and economic recovery by the industrialized countries are the main reasons for a record-breaking 5.8 percent increase in global CO2 emissions between 2009 and 2010. Most major economies contributed to this increase, led by China, the United States, India and EU-27 with increases of 10 percent, 4 percent, 9 percent and 3 percent respectively. The increase is significant even when compared to 2008, when global CO2 emissions were at their highest before the global financial crisis. It can be noted that in EU-27, CO2 emissions remain lower in absolute terms than they were before the crisis (4.0 billion tons in 2010 as compared with 4.2 billion tons in 2007).
At present, the USA emits 16.9 tons CO2 per capita per year, over twice as much as the EU-27 with 8.1 tons. By comparison, Chinese per capita CO2 emissions of 6.8 tons are still below the EU-27 average, but now equal those of Italy. It should be noted that the average figures for China and EU-27 hide significant regional differences.
Long term global growth in CO2 emissions continues to be driven by power generation and road transport, both in industrial and developing countries. Globally, they account for about 40percent and 15percent respectively of the current total and both have consistent long-term annual growth rates of between 2.5 percent and 5 percent.
Throughout the Kyoto Protocol period, industrialized countries have made efforts to change their energy sources mix. Between 1990 and 2010 they reduced their dependence on coal (from 25 percent to 20 percent of total energy production) and oil (from 38 percent to 36.5percent), and shifted towards natural gas (which increased from 23 percent to 27 percent), nuclear energy (from 8 percent to 9 percent) and renewable energy (from 6.5 percent to 8 percent). In addition they made progress in energy savings, for example by insulation of buildings, more energy-efficient end-use devices and higher fuel efficiencies.The report shows that the current efforts to change the mix of energy sources cannot yet compensate for the ever increasing global demand for power and transport. This needs to be considered in future years in all efforts to mitigate the growth of global greenhouse gas emissions, as desired by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Bali Action Plan and the Cancún agreements.