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Researcher Argues that Climate Change Disasters Are Predictable

  • Jun 21, 2011
Climate change disasters, such as the melting of the Greenland ice sheet, dieback of the Amazon rainforest, or collapse of the Atlantic overturning circulation, could be predicted according to University of Exeter research.

Writing in the journal Nature Climate Change, professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter shows that the “tipping points” that trigger these disasters could be anticipated by looking for changes in climate behaviour.

Climate tipping points are small changes that trigger a huge shift in climate systems, with potentially devastating consequences. It is already known that climate change caused by human activity could push several potential hazards past their tipping points. However, it is often assumed that these tipping points are entirely unpredictable.

Lenton argues that a system of forecasting could be developed to enable some forewarning of high-risk tipping points. The approach he outlines involves analyzing observational data to look for signs that a climate system is slowing down in its response to short-term natural variability (which we experience as the weather). This characteristic behavior indicates the climate is becoming unstable, and is a common feature of systems approaching critical thresholds known as bifurcation points.

Professor Tim Lenton of the University of Exeter said, "Many people assume that tipping points which could be passed as a result of human-induced climate change are essentially unpredictable. Recent research shows that the situation is not as hopeless as it may seem: we have the tools to anticipate thresholds, which means we could give societies valuable time to adapt. Although these findings give us hope, we are still a long way from developing rigorous early warning systems for these climate hazards."

Comments

Fri, Jul 1, 2011

Lets face it, if there is a climate instability in the works it is a result and byproduct of "CIVILIZATION". It is not caused by cars, trains and planes. This is what the "Tree Ring Circuis" groups are trying to say. This is evident as the same groups are subverting 'ALL" the alternative evergy sources, and supplying energy resources that have the rosiest estimates of less than 10% of the energy requirements we currently use. Translation: go back in history to where each human used about 10% of the energy that is used , "ON A GLOBAL AVERAGE", and that's where these groups want us to be. Right or wrong the truth should be stated clearly and understood. It is not growing veggies and taking your electric scooter to work , to work on your PC in an airconditioned office, it is bare subsistance. these are the same people that encouraged feeding the world, not teachinig them to feed themselves and ultimate globalization of resources.

Tue, Jun 28, 2011

As a natural systems researcher, the climatic variables are so numerous and complex that the idea of predicting a point in time or set of conditions to precipitate a tipping point are wildly counter-intuitive. Like a good researcher, one would hope to see copious examples of past tipping points caused by relatively small changes in CO2. For example, what was the tipping point for the Medieval Warming Period or Little Ice Age?

Tue, Jun 28, 2011 Old Al Here

I think predictable means that "they aint gonna happen"

Tue, Jun 28, 2011 Mark Michigan

Hello: I like the sentence "It is already known that climate change caused by human activity could push several potential hazards past their tipping points." What hazards are these and what human induced climate changes have actually happened? I don't know of any. One is not suppose to make such statements in a paper unless they back it up.

Tue, Jun 28, 2011 E. F. Harper, CS, DABFE, DABFET, CFC ID

Predicting tipping points or long range climatic change has not been possible to date and as long as researcher bias exists, it will not happen. Believing that CO2 is driving Global Warming is one example. It does not, by the way. The theory proposed is a noble goal and valuable to the extent we gain more insight into the millions of data points, internal and external to the Earth affecting us. That's it. You then must ask humans to use and ACT on that "POTENTIAL" prediction fact wisely! Good luck with that one. Still, give it a shot BUT DON'T WORK IN TOTAL SECRECY! Not just to preserve publishing rights.

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